The drivers of growth for 2026 are varied and not without risks.

We believe the tailwinds for growth include policy support, AI-driven productivity gains, improved supply chain dynamics, falling interest rates, and strong corporate and household balance sheets.

That said, we believe the headwinds include a slowing labor market, persistent inflation pressures, shifting trade policy, a fragmented consumer, and small business struggles.

Taken together, we think the economy will avoid a recession and grow 2% year over year, providing necessary support for businesses to prosper.