Broker Check

6/20/2025 SFS Insights: Oil Prices Typically Double Ahead of Recessions

For those surprised at how resilient the markets have been despite the swirling geopolitical headlines, analysts have pointed to several factors that are motivating investors. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note on Monday that the parties behind the hostilities between Israel and Iran are likely interested in keeping the conflict contained, and that investors are also banking on limited disruption of oil production facilities.

 Jitters over the potential for a widening of the violence appeared to have been calmed amid a report that Tehran is looking to deescalate the conflict. On Monday, oil prices eased lower in a new sign that investors don't believe a protracted war — and fresh energy pricing pressures — will ensue this summer.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth meeting in a row and kept a projection for two rate cuts this year. The central bank voted unanimously to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25-4.5%. The Fed has now held rates at that level for six months since last cutting in December.

The Fed is sticking with their cautious approach, even or perhaps especially because of heightened uncertainty. Bill Adams, chief Economists for Comerica Bank, wrote in a note on Monday that the Fed is likely to adhere to a plan of "patience" and "wait and see" as officials analyze how the mix of higher tariffs and tax cuts will impact the economy.

Are You Ready to Put Your Retirement into Focus?

Contact Our Team