The consensus economic forecast is that growth will slow down over the coming quarters as higher tariffs weigh on earnings, capital expenditures, and consumer spending.

The consensus equity analyst forecast is that earnings will accelerate over the coming quarters, see chart below.

The second-quarter earnings season will start next week and reveal who is right. If earnings continue to be strong, the adverse effects of tariffs, as expected by economists, will prove to be incorrect. Either the equity analysts are too optimistic, or the economists are too pessimistic.