9/12/25 SFS Insights: ADP Becoming a Better Predictor for BLS
The bad news is that recent revisions have been largely to the downside. The good news is investors have alternative data sources. Amid debates about data reliability, investors can use the ADP Employment report as an alternative indicator for the health of the labor market.
Payrolls grew by 22,000 in August, but employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised downward June and July. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.
The labor market is coming to a standstill as businesses slow the pace of hiring and await clarity on tariffs and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. As the Fed prepares for its upcoming meeting, policy makers will likely focus on weakness in the job market to defend their decision to cut rates.

Source: LPL Research, Automatic Data Processing, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 09/05/25