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Our January 2026 Newsletter: LPL 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine

Our January 2026 Newsletter: LPL 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine

January 08, 2026

LPL 2026 Outlook: The Policy Engine

Saratoga Financial Services is pleased to present LPL Research'sOutlook 2026: The Policy Engine. This annual update offers a thorough analysis of the economy and markets, highlighting potential implications for you.

The year 2025 offered a clear illustration of today’s prevailing market regime — one that has been shaped less by traditional fundamentals and business cycle dynamics and more by fiscal and monetary policy. While policy has always influenced markets, its role has increasingly grown. What does this mean as we look ahead to 2026?

In an environment where policy decisions are one of the most powerful forces steering market direction, we believe patience is essential. Avoid overreacting to short-term sentiment swings, as policy- and momentum-driven markets tend to produce sharp price fluctuations — which can challenge our behavioral biases. We saw this in 2025, when stock prices swung from policy-induced lows to momentum-driven highs.

The good news: We anticipate policy will remain a net tailwind for markets in 2026. Short term interest rates are likely to continue easing as economic growth moderates and inflation stays contained. Corporate earnings may provide support, while core bonds quietly offer value (and should benefit from a more dovish Federal Reserve). In addition, given correlations can spike in policy-driven markets, investors may want to consider non-correlated alternative investments* as part of a diversified approach.

Several key themes will likely continue shaping the landscape in 2026:

  • Equity markets should remain resilient but vulnerable to volatility, while a fragmented economic backdrop limits clear trends in bonds.
  • Policy decisions in Washington will remain a dominant force, influencing sentiment.
  • The post-pandemic cycle is still distorted, with growth steady yet uneven, inflation persistently above target, and labor markets gradually softening.
  • Add to this the effects of massive fiscal spending, an AI-driven capital investment boom, and more, and the result is an environment that defies traditional patterns.
  • In this setting, diversification and agility are critical.

These are just some of the insights you’ll find inOutlook 2026: The Policy Engine. The report, combined with guidance from Saratoga Financial Services, will help you navigate market complexities and continue to work toward pursuing your goals.**

Wishing you a healthy and prosperous New Year. As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Sincerely,

Did You Know: OBBBA Deductions that Effect 2026 Taxes***

Qualified Home Mortgage Interest Deduction

  • Effective 2026 and later
  • Indefinitely extends the limitation on the home mortgage interest deduction to interest on the first $750,000 of debt for debt incurred after Dec. 15, 2017. Also indefinitely disallows deductions of home equity loan interest unless the debt was incurred to buy, build or substantially improve the taxpayer’s home. However, the bill expands the definition of interest to include certain mortgage insurance premiums. Taxable income for taxpayers who itemize with new mortgages between $750,000 and $1 million (previous limit) and home equity loans is generally increased.

Miscellaneous Itemized Deductions

  • Effective 2026 and later
  • Indefinitely extends the termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions. Certain K-12 educator expenses will be removed from the list of miscellaneous itemized deductions. Increases taxable income for itemizers with miscellaneous expenses in excess of the previous 2% floor.

Limitations on Tax Benefit of Itemized Deductions

  • Effective 2026 and later
  • Establishes new limit on the tax benefit of itemized deductions for those in the 37% tax bracket to 35%. Under the new limit, itemized deductions will be reduced by 2/37 of their itemized deductions (or the taxable income that would otherwise be taxed at the 37% bracket if less than their itemized deductions). The overall limit on itemized deductions is applied after any applicable itemized deduction-specific limits.  

The Average Social Security Benefit at Ages 62 & 70

For most retired Americans, their Social Security (SS) check is an integral part of their income. For the last 23 years, national pollster Gallup has conducted an annual survey to decipher how reliant retirees are on the income they receive from SS. Gallup found that 80% to 90% of respondents, including 88% of those polled in 2024, require their SS check to cover their expenses.

Did you know that the age at which you begin collecting your SS benefit can have a huge impact on how much you’ll receive each month? Although retired-worker benefits can be collected as early as age 62, there's a monetary incentive to be patient. For every year a worker waits to collect their initial payout, beginning at age 62 and continuing through age 69, their benefit can grow by as much as 8%. Despite a wide variance in monthly payouts, there are clear-cut advantages and drawbacks associated with every traditional claiming age (62 through 70). However, these differences are especially pronounced at the earliest (age 62) and latest (age 70) traditional collecting ages.

In December 2023, the Social Security Administration's Office of the Actuary (OACT) found that roughly 590,000 retired-worker beneficiaries were receiving an average of $1,298.26 at age 62. By comparison, just over 3 million beneficiaries took home an average check of $2,037.54 at age 70. This represents a 57% difference in average monthly payout between ages 62 and 70. (Note: this average benefit is based on the recipient's age, as of December 2023, and isn't necessarily indicative of the age they opted to begin receiving benefits, with the exception of age 62.)

One of the downsides for taking your benefit at age 62 is that depending on your birth year, your monthly benefit will be permanently reduced by 25% to 30%. Early filers may also be exposed to the retirement earnings test, which allows the SSA to withhold some or all of their benefits depending on how much they earn. However, the 2024 Social Security Board of Trustees Report forecasts the depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund's (OASI) asset reserves by 2033. If the OASI's asset reserves are exhausted, sweeping benefit cuts of up to 21% may be necessary for retired workers and survivor beneficiaries in nine years.

On the other hand, waiting eight years to initially claim benefits at age 70 will maximize what you'll receive monthly. Depending on the year you were born, collecting at age 70 will boost your monthly check by 24% to 32% above what you'd have received at your full retirement age. This can be a particularly attractive option for retirees in good health, but there's no guarantee that an age 70 claimant will live long enough to also maximize theirlifetime(key word!) benefit from SS.

If you’re considering triggering your SS benefits but would like to weigh your options on when to do it, please feel free to call our office at (518) 584-2555 – we’re happy to help you with this decision! To read the full article, clickhere.


Frosty Fun this January!

There's no denying we've had a COLD start to winter this year in Saratoga Springs. If you spend the winter here, you know you might as well embrace the cold and snow... it's a long wait for spring! Here are a few things to add to your calendar to get you out of the house and enjoying the season:

  • January 8-11: Alpin Haus' Annual Saratoga RV Show at the Saratoga City Center
  • January 16-19: The 11th Annual Dr. King Celebration Weekend
  • January 23-25 & January 30-31: Fire & Ice Bar at Fort William Henry Hotel
  • January 23-24 & January 30-31: Funky Ice Fest at Adirondack Pub & Brewery

For a complete list of local events, clickhere.

*Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and should be considered as an investment for the risk capital portion of the investor’s portfolio. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses. 
**This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic  forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All data is provided as of December 9, 2025. All index data from FactSet. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
***irs.gov