Three events converge next week that could dramatically reshape market narratives:

1) Hyperscaler earnings (July 29-30)

Microsoft, Meta and Amazon report back-to-back, and investors are watching the AI trade obsessively. Are capex investments, earnings growth and returns accelerating or stalling?

2) Fed meeting (July 28-29)

Nine of 18 Fed officials project a rate hike this year. Forward guidance has been eliminated, making individual Fed speakers the only remaining signal of intent. Recent Fedspeak has been unambiguously hawkish on inflation. With no roadmap, markets will parse every word for clues about the path ahead.

3) Iran conflict re-escalating

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint. Escalation could constrict oil flows, deplete global reserves, and spike energy prices, adding fuel to the inflation battle the Fed is waging and putting further upward pressure on yields.

Bottom line: Next week answers three separate questions: Are AI capex investments panning out? Can the Fed contain inflation? Will geopolitics stay manageable? Markets are currently betting yes on all three.

source: apollo.com